October 17, 2022: Yuriy Kerpatenko, no credit diplomacy, poll freakouts, and Xi for emperor
By Joe Noser, Research Analyst
On this lovely Monday, I am laughing at the version of myself from six weeks ago that thought I had a lot of work to do. How naive that guy was! Because of the multitude of stuff I've got going on, I'm going to try to make this a little more brief than usual. Update: I failed this objective. Oh well.
Last week
Unfortunately, I got last week totally right.
In the Russia/Ukraine War, Putin has signaled he intends to continue his attacks on Ukrainian civilian centers – specifically, the capital city of Kyiv. Interesting point about the spelling of "Kyiv: If you search "Kiev" on Twitter rather than "Kyiv," you get a fair amount of Russian propaganda or Russia-friendly accounts. Just something to be aware of as you read coverage of the war on your own.
Ukraine is facing a threat largely unprecedented in modern warfare – the suicide drone. These drones, known as Shahed-136 drones, are Iranian-made and sound like a lawn mower flying over your head. You can see them pretty clearly, which frankly is terrifying. Once they find a target, they dive toward it and explode on impact. They're launched from the back of a truck and have been used by the Russians on the battlefield since August. However, they have to fly low and have a relatively low payload, so they should be an easy target for a robust anti-aircraft defensive perimeter. More drones targeted Ukraine's electrical grid today, as well as residential buildings. In response, the calls out of Kyiv for greater air defense support are growing louder.
The use of the drones signals the Russians are low on long-range precision munitions – or, at the very least, conventional ones – Russia has plenty of short, medium, and long range nuclear missiles. Russia may soon be increasing its supply of long-range, precision munitions, though, thanks once again to Iran. Over the weekend, the Washington Post reported that Iran will soon be selling surface-to-surface missiles to everyone's favorite vodka enjoyers/human rights abusers, as well as more Shahed-136 drones. Iran has repeatedly denied that any of its weapons have been used by Russia against Ukraine, but independent outlets in Ukraine have shared images of charred drones that suggest Tehran is, er, being less than forthright. If the WaPo report is true, the sale will make more attacks like the one seen on Kyiv last Monday possible. That's a significant escalation from Iran, one that has some analysts in Tel Aviv calling on the Israeli government to get more involved in the effort to support Ukraine (more on Israel later).
Last week, Saudi Arabia created an "October surprise" for the midterms in the form of higher gas prices via an oil production cut. Additional reporting showed Washington warned Riyadh last month that a significant supply crunch would be seen as Saudi Arabia siding with Russia in its war against Ukraine, but the Saudis did it anyway, ostensibly to stick a fork in the eye of Democrats in Washington. So far, the move has worked: a month ago, the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. was $3.68; this week it is $3.89. Democrats are understandably angry, and President Biden announced that his administration will be re-evaluating America's relationship with Saudi Arabia, although he gave few details other than signaling some support for curtailing American military aid to the oil-rich, morally-bankrupt nation. Saudi Arabia is taking the president's words exactly as you might expect. Over the weekend, a video of Saudi Prince Saud al-Shaalan (close relative and friend of Mohamed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia) went viral in which Saud threatened jihad against "anybody that challenges the existence of this country and its kingdom." He issued the threat in English and directed it toward America. Today, the kingdom sentenced a 72-year-old American to 16 years in prison for tweets critical of the regime that he posted while he was in the U.S. Classy people, those Saudi royals.
In my view, it will be a great moral failure if President Biden doesn't facilitate a significant re-evaluation of America's relationship with the government of Saudi Arabia – a government that's facilitated genocidal wars, murdered American journalists, and backed our enemies rather than our friends.
This week
Biden and the Democrats will get no bump in the polls from the administration's big diplomatic win in the Middle East, but the world will still be better off.
Bet you're wondering what that "big diplomatic win" is. Who can blame you? There's been hardly any coverage of it. Still, it might end up having huge ramifications for Israel, the security of Lebanon, and the world.
Ok, so here's what happened. Last week, Israel and Lebanon announced an agreement to demarcate their maritime border. The deal was brokered by the Biden administration. It's a big win for a couple of reasons. First, Lebanon and Israel have technically been at war with each other since 1948. Lebanon doesn't recognize Israel's right to exist. These are two nations that fundamentally distrust one another, so the fact that any agreement was reached is pretty significant. Second, the deal will allow Israel to better protect the offshore natural gas it extracts from the Mediterranean Sea. More significantly from a humanitarian standpoint, Lebanon should now finally be able to entice drillers to take advantage of the natural gas found off its coastline – gas that previously was viewed as being in waters too disputed and dangerous to extract. That energy is badly needed for a country whose residents only have access to electricity for one or two hours a day.
The deal also has major geopolitical ramifications. In Israel, the primary voice opposing it has been Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's most famous politician who, at least for now, is out of power. Israel has elections Nov. 1 that could put Bibi back in power, destroying the tenuous coalition against him that currently governs the country and has the nation on a path to limiting settlements in the West Bank. Any win for Lepid, the current PM of Israel, is a loss for Bibi, a dangerous ideologue whose own political coalition is rather pro-Putin – something that has kept Israel on the sidelines of the Russia/Ukraine War. If Bibi is defeated in November, Lepid will have the political capital to perhaps give Ukraine access to Israel's much-vaunted Iron Dome anti-missile program – a move that would save a lot of lives.
Because no voter in America really gives a damn about any of this stuff – and neither does the media – the Democrats will not benefit from it.
Speaking of midterms, we'll have quite the freakout over the NYT/Sienna national poll, but be cautioned against reading too much into it.
A new poll released today showed Republicans with a slight edge in the generic ballot, as voters signaled worry about an imminent recession. Voters are right to be worried: despite some gains in the markets last week and today, Bloomberg Economics' probability model now projects a 100% chance of a recession within the next year. But economic worries don't tell the whole story, and neither does the poll. For one, the poll showed a 32% swing to Republicans from September to October from female, independent voters. That is a colossal swing, the kind only seen following a shocking national event, which America has not had. For another, there are plenty of indicators that Democratic voters are just as (if not more) energized as Republicans. Democrats out-raised Republicans by an almost 2-to-1 margin in 45 of the 65 closest House elections in the third quarter. And elsewhere, Iowa's most reliable political poll showed 88-year-old Republican Senator Chuck Grassley with just a three point lead over his Democratic challenger – a lead within the poll's margin of error. If Republicans have to spend big money to hold onto Iowa, they don't have a chance to win back the Senate, especially with Herschel Walker's campaign floundering in Georgia. So, as I keep cautioning, don't jump to conclusions about the elections just yet.
The CCP will officially make Xi a de-facto emperor this week.
The Party Congress – a meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's bigwigs that happens once every five years – kicked off on Sunday with a two hour speech from Xi himself. In it, he declared a "people's war" on COVID-19, made no apologies for China's more aggressive posture toward its neighbors, and signaled the nation would be willing to take Taiwan by force if necessary. In response, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said China wants to seize Taiwan on a "much faster timeline" than previously anticipated – an ominous sign. All told, this will be a big week for China news. In fact, it already has been, as the nation announced without explanation on Monday that it was delaying its release of its 3rd quarter GDP numbers (another ominous sign of an economic slowdown threatening to send the Chinese debt and bond market into a tailspin). Despite this, Xi will be named President for a third term at the end of the week, an unprecedented move cementing him as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.
Hero of the week
This week's award goes to Yuriy Kerpatenko. Kerpantenko, who conducted orchestras in Kherson for more than 20 years, was shot and killed in his home by Russian troops after he refused to conduct his orchestra in a demonstration meant to show an “improvement of peaceful life” in the city under Russian rule. His bravery is remarkable and a reminder of the real, human cost of Putin's war.
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All the best,
Joe